AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Corn futures settled 3/4 to 1 cent lower on Wednesday. Drier weather in the western Corn Belt is allowing harvest activity to pick up. The weekly EIA report indicated reduced corn consumption, with ethanol production for the week of 10/12 averaging 1.011 million barrels per day. That was down 29,000 bpd from the week prior and the lowest output since mid-April. Ethanol stocks were up another 109,000 barrels to 24.130 million barrels despite the reduced production, with the Rockies and Gulf the only regions to show reductions to stocks. EPA also indicated that the E15 plan won’t be available for comment until February, which would in our opinion delay implementation until May or later because of the Federal Register procedures. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show 0.8-1.3 MMT in 18/19 corn sales for the week of 10/11 according to wire surveys.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, down 3/4 cent

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Soybeans Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Soybean futures gave back their morning gains but settled 1/2 to 1 cent higher. Front month soy meal was up $1.40/ton to support product value, with soy oil down 10 points. Palm oil futures hit a 4-week high on ideas of increased use for biodiesel but also expanded biodiesel exports. Analysts are estimating tomorrow’s USDA report to show 0.6-1 MMT in 18/19 soybean export sales during the week of 10/11. Soy meal sales are seen at 150,000-450,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT in the first full week of the new MY. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 97,292 MT of 2013 soybeans sold on Wednesday, totaling 96.05% of the amount offered.

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.85 3/4, up 1 cent,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.99 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.25, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $323.70, up $1.40,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.56, down $0.10

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Wheat Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Wheat futures closed 4 to 9 lower across the three exchanges on Wednesday. Minneapolis spring wheat was the weakest market. Drier weather allowing winter wheat planting to progress and a stronger US dollar was also an issue for the bulls. Trade estimates ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report are running 300,000-600,000 MT for 18/19 all wheat sales. Last week’s sales totaled 339,022 MT. A couple optional origin tenders saw South Korea purchase 60,000 MT and Jordan buying 60,000 MT from CHS, while the Philippines bought 55,000 MT of Australian wheat on Wednesday.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.17 1/2, down 6 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.21, down 7 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 1/4, down 8 cents

Cattle Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Live cattle futures settled 52 cents lower to 27 cents higher, but only nearby October was in the plus column. Feeder cattle futures were mostly 57 to 87 cents lower at the close, with nearby October up 5 cents as it converges with cash before expiration. The CME feeder cattle index was down 22 cents on October 16 at $155.314. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower today. Choice boxes were down 56 cents @ $204.56, with Select down $1.36 to $191.19. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday is 352,000 head. That is 1,000 above the previous week and 5,000 head larger than last year. This morning’s FCE auction saw no sales on the 1,103 head offered. A few cash sales of $174 have been reported in Nebraska, with a few $111 trades in CO. Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report is expected to show 11.501 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1, 6.4% larger than last year if realized.

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $112.925, up $0.275,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $117.375, down $0.400,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $121.475, down $0.350,

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.075, up $0.050

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.350, down $0.875

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.075, down $0.875

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Lean hog futures were down $.97 to$2.17 in the front three months, with contracts after July 2019 in the black on spread activity. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 26 cents from the previous day @ $68.59 on October 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.35 lower @ $78.52 in the PM report. The belly primal led the way, down $7.06 per hundred pounds. The national base hog carcass value was 66 cents lower at a weighted average of $59.26 this afternoon. Both ECB and WCB values were lower. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 477,000 head on Wednesday, with the week to date total at 1.413 million. That is up 24,000 from last week and 52,000 larger than the same week in 2017. China is up to around 40 cases of ASF in 10 provinces, but confirmed liquidations are still less than 50,000 head.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.700, down $2.175,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $62.575, down $1.675

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $68.500, down $0.975

Cotton Market Commentary

October 17, 2018

Cotton futures settled 19 to 41 points lower. The US dollar index was up sharply, trading at the highest reading since October 10. The Chinese yuan continues to weaken as the tariff war plays out. Trade estimates for cotton production losses from Hurricane Michael are running anywhere from 300,000 to 900,000 bales, depending on assumptions about the quantity harvested before the storm hit and how much can be salvaged from damaged fields. The weekly USDA Export Sales report will be back on the regular schedule this week with the Thursday morning 7:30 a.m. CDT release. The Cotlook A index was up 40 points from the previous day at 88.05 cents/lb on October 16. The USDA weekly AWP is 67.73 cents/lb, and will be updated on Thursday.

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 77.920, down 41 points,

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.440, down 34 points

May 19 Cotton closed at 80.460, down 19 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353