Grains Report 08/13/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Tue Aug 13, 12:45PM CDT

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 14, 2019 66 Aug 09, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 14, 2019 25 Aug 06, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 14, 2019 182 Aug 12, 2019

Crop Progress
Date 11-Aug 4-Aug 2018 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 77 59 75 76
Cotton Bolls Opening 20 12 10
Corn Silking 90 78 96 97
Corn Dough 39 23 71 61
Corn Dented 7 24 16
Soybeans Blloming 82 72 95 93
Soybeans Setting Pods 54 37 83 76
Sorghum Headed 61 45 77 74
Sorghum Coloring 26 23 36 35
Sorghum Mature 19 21 23
Rice Headed 76 60 90 85
Rice Harvested 7 10 9
Peanuts Pegging 96 92 93 95
Oats Harvested 48 32 65 64
Winter Wheat Harvested 89 82 93 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 8 2 32 30
Barley Harvested 15 3 37 39

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 9 34 47 9
Cotton Last Week 1 12 33 44 10
Cotton Last Year 14 20 26 32 8

Corn This Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Year 3 7 20 50 20

Soybeans This Week 3 10 33 46 8
Soybeans Last Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 24 50 16

Sorghum This Week 1 5 28 52 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 5 26 54 14
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 34 42 7

Rice This Week 1 5 24 47 23
Rice Last Week 1 6 25 45 23
Rice Last Year 1 6 24 57 12

Oats This Week 2 6 28 52 12
Oats Last Week 2 6 27 54 11
Oats Last Year 4 3 22 58 13

Peanuts This Week 1 5 27 59 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 25 61 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 23 58 15

Barley This Week 0 6 20 57 17
Barley Last Week 0 5 19 64 12
Barley Last Year 0 3 16 67 14

Spring Wheat This Week 1 7 23 57 12
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 5 22 63 10
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 20 62 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 4 12 30 45 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 3 10 29 48 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 12 18 30 34 6

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Aug 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18
Soybeans 755.01,070.0 438.0:149.17 148.30 153.08:341.83 362.85 341.53
Brazil na na: 76.50 76.85 76.18:123.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na: 8.00 7.75 2.11: 53.00 56.00 37.80
China na na: 0.13 0.13 0.13: 17.00 15.90 15.20
Soyoil 1,500 1,740 1,995: 11.90 11.26 10.50: 57.41 56.04 55.18
Corn 2,181 2,360 2,140:169.90 176.22 148.74: 1,108 1,123 1,078
China na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:254.00 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na: 33.50 36.00 22.00: 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa na na: 1.50 1.00 2.07: 14.00 11.50 13.10
Cotton(a) 7.20 5.25 4.30: 43.85 40.83 40.95:125.61 119.19 123.78
All Wheat 1,014 1,072 1,099:182.63 174.16 182.04:768.07 730.55 761.87
China na na: 1.30 1.01 1.00:132.00 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na: 26.50 23.60 23.29:150.00 136.86 151.13
Canada na na: 24.00 24.50 21.95: 33.30 31.80 29.98
Argentina na na: 14.50 13.00 12.66: 20.50 19.50 18.50
Australia na na: 12.50 9.00 13.85: 21.00 17.30 20.94
Russia na na: 34.00 35.70 41.42: 73.00 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na: 19.50 16.20 17.78: 29.20 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 54.0 60.0 35.0: na na na
Barley 93.0 87.0 94.0: na na na
Oats 37.0 37.0 41.0: na na: na na na
Rice 47.2 50.6 29.4: 46.64 45.55 47.13:497.86 498.62 494.86

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Monday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Production 13,901.0 13,164 12,719-13,550 13,875
Soybean Production 3,680.0 3,783 3,633-3,960 3,845
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Yield 169.5 165.3 162.0-167.4 166.0
Soybean Yield 48.5 47.5 46.0-48.5 48.5
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2018-19
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,360.0 2,392 2,220-2,490 2,340
Soybeans 1,070.0 1,069 988-1,200 1,050
Wheat 1,072.0 1,072 1,072-1,072 1,072

2019-20
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,181.0 1,603 1,297-1,900 2,010
Soybeans 755.0 818 607-1,096 795
Wheat 1,014.0 991 865-1,053 1,000
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 328.6 333.6 326.0-383.0 328.8
Soybeans 114.5 113.4 111.4-115.5 113.0
Wheat 275.5 275.0 273.0-276.0 275.2
2019-20
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 307.7 290.9 282.0-298.7 298.9
Soybeans 101.7 106.2 101.0-124.1 104.5
Wheat 285.4 284.7 282.0-290.0 286.5
***
2019-20 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
All Wheat 1,980 1,926 1,873-1,990 1,921
Winter Wheat 1,326 1,295 1,270-1,330 1,291
Hard Red Winter 840 811 799-834 805
Soft Red Winter 258 256 250-259 259
White Winter 229 228 222-250 227
Other Spring 597 570 542-585 572
Durum 57 58 53-70 58

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 12
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 08, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/08/2019 08/01/2019 08/09/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,938 1,516
CORN 703,183 645,675 1,273,160 45,630,024 54,047,741
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 48 146
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 82,733 17,396 672 1,940,258 4,895,510
SOYBEANS 944,238 1,032,874 581,559 42,325,866 53,952,473
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 688,978 416,177 487,399 4,934,971 3,866,049
Total 2,419,132 2,112,122 2,342,790 94,834,404 116,764,992
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in response to higher than expected US production estimates from USDA. USDA showed higher Winter Wheat and Spring Wheat estimates and also higher than expected ending stocks estimates. The higher ending stocks estimates came despite increased demand estimates. World ending stocks were slightly lower due to continued weakness in overseas production. The higher production was bad for prices and so were the higher domestic ending stocks estimates. The trade keeps hoping for better demand in the world market for US Wheat, but this has not yet shown up as US prices remain fairly high in the world market. Ideas are that feed demand for Winter Wheat has been strong in the Great Plains, but export demand has been harder to find. Export sales reports so far have been rather routine. Most of the Winter Wheat harvest is almost over. The weather remains dry in much of the Midwest and Great Plains, but some rains have been noted in the Northern Plains to slow harvest activity there. USDA showed that the Spring Wheat harvest was expanding. Trends turned down on the charts with the price action yesterday.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 465, 460, and 436 September. Support is at 467, 455, and 451 September, with resistance at 472, 478, and 483 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 383 and 354 September. Support is at 387, 384, and 381 September, with resistance at 408, 412, and 415 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 506, 503, and 500 September, and resistance is at 514, 516, and 519 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice higher in reaction to the USDA reports released yesterday. Long grain yields were less and provided a bullish backdrop for the trade. We have ben hearing of lower yields in Texas and Louisiana and lower yields are expected in Arkansas and Mississippi once these states start to harvest. Long grains production was down as was domestic consumption. Exports were left unchanged. Medium and short grains yields were also lower except for California which saw increases due to very good growing conditions. Futures closed higher and the daily charts show that the market is about to try to rally again with moves over 1200/cwt possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1182 and 1207 September. Support is at 1152, 1135, and 1130 September, with resistance at 1163, 1172, and 1185 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was limit down in response to the USDA reports that showed higher than expected production potential and less demand. USDA showed more acres planted to Corn than had been anticipated by the trade. It also raised its yield estimate from last month by 3.5 bushels to push production estimates well above the trade guesses. USDA trimmed ethanol and industrial demand and also cut export demand. Ending stocks were well above trade estimates. Futures were limit down for the rest of the day after the reports were released and synthetic options showed that some more weakness, maybe five cents, was possible today. Prices can become more stable after that, but there is no real reason to expect a major rally for now due to the production estimates. It is very possible that USDA has published their biggest production estimates for this crop year. We took a one day crop tour of central Illinois over the past weekend. Areas west of Interstate 55 and north of Interstate 80 showed a lot of prevent plant area that was still black soil or planted to a cover crop. The area was significant as it seemed that one-third to one half of this region had not been planted. Significant prevent plated area was noted near Pontiac and east of Bloomington as well. Prevent planted area was also noted south of Kankakee. Most of the crop is just silking or in blister now. Only a few fields were in milk or dough or starting to dent. It is normal for the crop to be at least in milk and usually in dough by this date, but this was noted only south and east of Bloomington this year. Calculations for yield estimates were just about impossible to make. The crop needs warm and wet growing condition from now on this year to reach best yield potential,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 375 September. Support is at 382, 381, and 378 September, and resistance is at 391, 394, and 401 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 295 September. Support is at 269, 267, and 265 September, and resistance is at 276, 278, and 282 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower in response to the USDA reports. Soybean Oil was higher. USDA left its yield estimates unchanged from the June reports and showed less planted and harvested area from June. Export demand was cut due to the lost Chinese market demand due in part to the trade wars and in part to less demand generally from Cina due to the effects of the Swine Flu. Domestic demand was unchanged. We took a one day tour of central Illinois over the weekend to mostly look at the Corn crop but also take a look at the Soybeans. Some producers probably planted Soybeans as a cover crop on prevent plant acreage as well. Prevent plant acreage was significant on our weekend tour of Central Illinois with the most noted north of Morris and west of Interstate 55. Significant prevent plant area was noted near Pontiac and west of Bloomington. The rest of the crop was late a just flowering or setting pods in the most advanced cases. Soybeans in the western part of the trip tended to be very small and ranged anywhere from half a foot to a foot and a half tall. Crops were most advanced south and east of Bloomington and the crops in these areas were in the best conditions. Many areas were showing stress and needed a good rain. It is likely that USDA will make significant revisions in the Soybeans production estimates in the next few months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed up with objectives of 896 September. Support is at 861, 856, and 849 September, and resistance is at 882, 887, and 896 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 291.00, 287.00, and 278.00 September. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 300.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2960 September. Support is at 2890, 2880, and 2860 September, with resistance at 2970, 3000, and 3040 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on the price action in Chicago. Some support also came from reports of frost in northern growing areas. Farmers are not selling any of the new crop yet and processors and exporters want to set some prices. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 461.00 November. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2100 October, with resistance at 2210, 2240, and 2250 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry after some showers today. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +40 Sep +155 Sep +50 Sep +35 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +40 Sep +73 Sep +24 Nov
October +35 Dec +70 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 9
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, August 9.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 432.20 -20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.20
Track Thunder Bay 469.10 15.00 Nov 2019 up 1.90
Track Vancouver 474.10 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,594 lots, or 4.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,408 3,430 3,395 3,417 3,406 3,415 9 76,256 70,718
Nov-19 3,460 3,460 3,448 3,451 3,437 3,451 14 8 308
Jan-20 3,456 3,492 3,451 3,492 3,465 3,479 14 62,518 114,626
Mar-20 – – – 3,439 3,426 3,439 13 0 30
May-20 3,596 3,628 3,590 3,625 3,594 3,614 20 2,812 30,064
Jul-20 – – – 3,613 3,601 3,613 12 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 1,055,064 lots, or 20.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,874 1,876 1,856 1,860 1,874 1,865 -9 131,956 283,656
Nov-19 1,903 1,908 1,887 1,894 1,906 1,896 -10 50,118 341,094
Jan-20 1,919 1,924 1,891 1,914 1,925 1,912 -13 796,542 939,152
Mar-20 1,948 1,948 1,919 1,939 1,946 1,935 -11 1,946 3,602
May-20 1,983 1,987 1,957 1,976 1,989 1,976 -13 74,366 192,872
Jul-20 1,989 1,995 1,976 1,986 2,002 1,987 -15 136 1,182
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,363,396 lots, or 98.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,905 2,977 2,883 2,948 2,900 2,935 35 500,054 591,104
Nov-19 2,928 3,004 2,910 2,980 2,926 2,954 28 70,338 243,620
Dec-19 2,913 2,980 2,910 2,961 2,909 2,953 44 6,052 1,328
Jan-20 2,885 2,964 2,866 2,940 2,886 2,925 39 2,580,020 1,730,994
Mar-20 2,836 2,889 2,836 2,872 2,836 2,868 32 78 816
May-20 2,761 2,806 2,740 2,788 2,754 2,781 27 206,656 321,632
Jul-20 2,753 2,801 2,741 2,790 2,749 2,784 35 198 546
Palm Oil
Turnover: 621,700 lots, or 30.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,660 4,724 4,652 4,722 4,638 4,680 42 89,744 156,790
Oct-19 – – – 4,790 4,790 4,790 0 0 18
Nov-19 4,888 4,888 4,788 4,788 4,776 4,838 62 4 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,912 4,850 4,912 62 0 8
Jan-20 4,836 4,872 4,816 4,862 4,818 4,838 20 503,246 494,436
Feb-20 – – – 4,848 4,828 4,848 20 0 20
Mar-20 5,122 5,122 5,064 5,064 5,110 5,102 -8 6 20
Apr-20 – – – 5,168 5,176 5,168 -8 0 2
May-20 5,016 5,062 5,008 5,050 5,016 5,030 14 28,700 56,444
Jun-20 – – – 4,960 4,948 4,960 12 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,020 5,020 5,020 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,089,050 lots, or 67.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 0
Sep-19 6,036 6,106 6,012 6,096 6,044 6,054 10 105,924 205,764
Nov-19 6,100 6,128 6,100 6,128 6,024 6,118 94 6 18
Dec-19 6,170 6,218 6,122 6,190 6,220 6,160 -60 16 42
Jan-20 6,160 6,218 6,124 6,206 6,170 6,166 -4 939,764 949,740
Mar-20 – – – 6,292 6,292 6,292 0 0 30
May-20 6,204 6,244 6,164 6,232 6,200 6,200 0 43,340 146,156
Jul-20 – – – 6,196 6,128 6,196 68 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.