Grains Report 09/10/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Tue Sep 10, 11:35AM CDT

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 11, 2019 111 Sep 06, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 11, 2019 30 Sep 04, 2019
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 11, 2019 5 Sep 03, 2019
CORN September Sep. 11, 2019 724 Sep 09, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 11, 2019 7 Sep 09, 2019
SOYBEAN September Sep. 11, 2019 401 Sep 09, 2019
WHEAT September Sep. 11, 2019 20 Sep 03, 2019

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,614 13,040-14,003 13,901 14,420
Soybean Production 3,596 3,499-3,745 3,680 4,544
Corn Yield 166.7 163.0-170.7 169.5 176.4
Soybean Yield 47.2 46.0-49.0 48.5 51.6
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 13,530 165.0 3,529 46.5
AgriSource 13,596 166.0 3,524 46.5
Allendale 13,755 N/A 3,499 N/A
DC Analysis 13,701 167.0 3,593 47.4
Doane 13,500 165.0 3,565 47.0
EDF Man 13,860 169.0 3,642 48.0
Farm Futures 14,003 170.7 3,720 49.0
Grain Cycles 13,530 165.0 3,522 46.4
INTL FCStone 13,640 168.4 3,647 48.3
Sid Love Consulting 13,530 165.0 3,605 47.5
Northstar 13,700 168.0 3,567 47.0
Price Futures 13,480 164.4 3,580 47.2
RJOBrien 13,782 168.0 3,650 48.1
RMC 13,653 166.5 3,680 46.0
US Commodities 13,040 163.0 3,552 46.8
Vantage RM 13,776 168.0 3,605 47.5
Western Milling 13,245 165.4 3,745 47.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,722 169.0 3,506 46.5

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,398 2,280-2,460 2,360
Soybeans 1,043 990-1,084 1,070
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,965 1,570-2,269 2,181
Soybeans 661 565-797 755
Wheat 1,014 909-1,037 1,014
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,400 1,025 1,851 600 1,005
AgriSource 2,380 1,055 1,870 603 1,025
Allendale 2,417 1,045 2,157 649 1,017
DC Analysis 2,420 1,020 2,091 628 909
Doane 2,440 1,010 1,990 650 1030
EDF Man 2,360 1,070 2,141 717 1010
Farm Futures 2,400 1,044 2,269 797 1,013
Grain Cycles 2,405 1,065 1,835 647 1,014
INTL FCStone 2,344 993 2,004 725 1,037
Sid Love Consulting 2,360 1,070 1,810 679 1,034
Northstar 2,460 990 2,100 660 1,025
Price Futures 2,435 1,015 1,835 599 1,014
RJOBrien 2,449 1,022 2,101 721 1,027
RMC 2,420 1,070 2,090 565 1,014
US Commodities 2,435 1084 1,570 646 1,030
Vantage RM 2,385 1,070 2,056 680 1,014
Western Milling 2,380 1,038 1,600 723 1,022
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,280 1,080 1,992 616 1,009

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 329.6 327.0-332.3 328.6
Soybeans 114.1 113.0-115.9 114.5
Wheat 275.3 272.0-276.9 275.5
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 301.8 292.7-307.0 307.7
Soybeans 101.6 97.0-119.0 101.7
Wheat 285.5 283.0-288.1 285.4
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 327.0 113.0 274.5 298.0 98.0 283.5
Allendale 329.4 114.2 275.5 307.0 99.8 283.6
Doane 330.5 113.0 275.0 305.0 100.0 283.5
EDF Man 328.6 114.5 275.5 307.0 101.0 286.0
Farm Futures 332.3 113.0 272.0 302.0 101.7 284.7
Grain Cycles 329.0 115.0 275.5 297.5 102.5 286.0
INTL FCStone 330.1 115.9 276.9 302.8 119.0 288.1
Northstar 330.0 113.0 276.0 306.0 100.0 288.0
RMC N/A N/A N/A 300.7 97.0 285.4
US Commodities 329.2 115.0 276.0 292.7 98.2 287.0
Western Milling 329.5 114.0 276.0 298.0 102.0 283.0
Zaner Ag Hedge N/A N/A N/A 304.5 99.6 287.2

Crop Progress
Date 8-Sep 1-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 43 36 38 37
Cotton Harvested 7 9 8
Corn Dough 89 81 99 97
Corn Dented 55 41 84 77
Corn Mature 11 6 33 24
Soybeans Setting Pods 92 86 100 99
Sorghum Headed 97 92 99 98
Sorghum Coloring 65 52 78 74
Sorghum Mature 27 24 33 37
Sorghum Harvested 22 21 24 24
Rice Harvested 30 21 39 37
Oats Harvested 89 84 96 95
Spring Wheat Harvested 71 55 92 87
Barley Harvested 82 72 93 92

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 15 39 37 6
Cotton Last Week 1 14 37 39 9
Cotton Last Year 13 21 28 29 9

Corn This Week 4 10 31 45 10
Corn Last Week 3 10 29 47 11
Corn Last Year 4 9 20 47 21

Soybeans This Week 3 9 33 45 10
Soybeans Last Week 3 10 32 46 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 22 50 19

Sorghum This Week 1 5 26 53 15
Sorghum Last Week 1 5 27 53 14
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 30 42 “

Rice This Week 1 5 25 44 23
Rice Last Week 1 4 25 47 23
Rice Last Year 0 3 22 59 16

Peanuts This Week 2 6 20 55 9
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 27 57 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 23 56 16

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 14 29 43 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 9 13 29 44 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 9 17 31 36 7

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 9
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 05, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/05/2019 08/29/2019 09/06/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 49 196 2,987 3,204
CORN 590,013 357,784 783,495 449,958 678,521
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 48 170
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 33,304 88,718 1,774 32,297 1,510
SOYBEANS 906,029 1,290,414 927,335 501,778 834,330
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 402,486 558,523 441,592 7,000,841 5,705,289
Total 1,931,832 2,295,488 2,154,392 7,988,208 7,224,222
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher with Chicago Soft Red Winter leading the way on ideas of less deliveries. Demand has shown up at current levels and there is now talk that Wheat prices are finally cheap enough. The rally came despite news that Russian Wheat prices remain under pressure due to stronger competition in world markets. Chart trends on the weekly charts in general show very oversold conditions. The US Dollar remains very strong and that is hurting the ability of US exporters to sell Wheat. Saudi Arabia tendered for Wheat last week and released the results yesterday but did not show origins. Ideas are that the Wheat will be sourced from Russia and Europe. The US Winter Wheat harvest is over and the Spring Wheat harvests in the US and Canada are moving along. September can often be a month when Wheat futures bottom out but it is hard to make a case for a big rally as the US must try to compete with other world sellers for business and against Corn and other feed grains for business inside the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers this week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 460, 451, and 442 December, with resistance at 481, 483, and 486 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 376 December. Support is at 389, 381, and 380 December, with resistance at 400, 406, and 408 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 487, 485, and 482 December, and resistance is at 504, 511, and 514 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in range trading yesterday. The market got the latest crop progress reports that showed harvest is making slower progress, but is really waiting for the USDA reports on Thursday. Traders anticipate that USDA will be able to lower yields and lower harvested area in the reports on Thursday. Field yield reports from Texas and Louisiana are less than last year in all cases and average to below average. Initial harvesting is now taking place in Mississippi, Missouri, and Arkansas. Ideas are that field yields will be less in these states as well. Milling quality is said to be good to very good at this point in the harvest. Smut has been reported in Texas away from Houston, but the smut has not affected the milling quality so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1211 November. Support is at 1184, 1174, and 1155 November, with resistance at 1200, 1209, and 1224 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower as traders anticipate the potential for production to be as big as USDA estimated last month. The market got surprised after the close when USDA released its updated condition ratings that showed a three-point drop in the good to excellent ratings. Current longer range weather forecasts are now calling for moderate to above normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks and this weather would be beneficial to crop development. Traders are said to think that there will be more than enough Corn for any demand. Demand ideas remain bad with no one looking for much improvement in the short-term. The weekly export sales reports have been weaker and show that there is strong competition for sales. Domestic demand ideas remain bad after the president gave smaller oil refineries waivers from using bio fuels including ethanol. The move got the agricultural community very upset and the president is now being forced to find alternative demand for the products. That has proven difficult so far. Feed demand has been week for the last year as feeders look for other grains such as Wheat. USDA is expected to lower overall demand in its reports this week that could more than offset and reduced production estimates.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 278,200 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 353 December. Support is at 352, 349, and 346 December, and resistance is at 363, 365, and 368 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 265, 263, and 262 December, and resistance is at 272, 273, and 277 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were near unchanged and Soybean Meal closed a little higher. Soybean Oil was lower. USDA left conditions ratings close to unchanged in its updates last night. Current weather outlooks call for moderate to above normal temperatures for the next two weeks, and this is great for Soybeans as the crop needs all the time it can get to finish developing after the very late start to the planting season this year. The markets are weak in front of the USDA production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Analysts look for a slight reduction in yield estimates and slightly lower production when compared to June. Bearish traders and analysts look for virtually no change in the USDA estimates. The weather has been cool and is not pushing Soybeans or Corn to maturity, but this could change if the extended forecasts come to fruition. Analysts will concentrate on the USDA pod counts in this report. Producers and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour participants noted that pod counts were down sharply this year. USDA showed higher pod counts in June. The weekly charts in both markets show the potential for prices to work lower over time.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 138,000 tons of soybeans and 195,750 tons of Soybean Meal last night.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 851, 846, and 840 November, and resistance is at 866, 869, and 879 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 286.00 and 276.00 October. Support is at 289.00, 286.00, and 283.00 October, and resistance is at 293.00, 294.00, and 296.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2770, and 2740 October, with resistance at 2900, 2930, and 2960 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again yesterday and trends are down for the short-term on the charts. A stronger Canadian Dollar helped create a little selling interest. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was higher. The market appears to be in a short-term and shallow correction now. Export data from the private sources has been positive so far this month. Buying came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports so far this month are 393,129 tons, down 23.2% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 436.00 November. Support is at 437.00, 434.00, and 431.00 November, with resistance at 447.00, 450.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2140 and 2090 November. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2110 November, with resistance at 2200, 2240, and 2260 November.

DJ Malaysia’s August Palm Oil Exports 1.73M Tons; Up 16% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 16% on month at 1.73 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,821,548 1,740,759 Up 4.64%
Palm Oil Exports 1,732,888 1,489,171 Up 16.37%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 86,696 86,865 Dn 0.19%
Closing Stocks 2,251,831 2,378,099 Dn 5.31%
Crude Palm Oil 1,290,565 1,338,126 Dn 3.55%
Processed Palm Oil 961,266 1,039,973 Dn 7.57%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week in the south but showers and storms in the north. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +33 Dec +150 Dec +70 Sep +10 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +38 Dec +77 Dec +13 Nov
November +43 Dec +77 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 422.80 -20.00 dn 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 449.80 10.00 dn 3.00
Basis: Vancouver 456.80 17.00 dn 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 535.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 540.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 542.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 542.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 542.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 545.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 570.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 452.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,140 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 146.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1710)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,082 lots, or 3.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,406 3,420 14 8 24
Nov-19 – – – 3,448 3,456 3,448 -8 0 310
Jan-20 3,444 3,459 3,441 3,450 3,459 3,450 -9 87,126 184,576
Mar-20 3,473 3,473 3,473 3,473 3,471 3,473 2 32
May-20 3,694 3,694 3,665 3,669 3,680 3,675 -5 9,944 53,310
Jul-20 3,667 3,667 3,667 3,667 3,671 3,667 -4 2 14
Corn
Turnover: 660,300 lots, or 12.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 – – – 1,813 1,813 1,813 0 0 2,400
Nov-19 1,862 1,862 1,847 1,854 1,861 1,851 -10 46,348 336,000
Jan-20 1,885 1,888 1,871 1,880 1,884 1,878 -6 545,638 1,196,720
Mar-20 1,906 1,906 1,895 1,896 1,906 1,900 -6 198 4,726
May-20 1,944 1,947 1,933 1,940 1,944 1,938 -6 67,968 274,664
Jul-20 1,956 1,957 1,945 1,946 1,953 1,951 -2 148 2,412
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,276,306 lots, or 36.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 – – – 2,928 2,928 2,928 0 0 2,048
Nov-19 2,910 2,914 2,891 2,903 2,916 2,902 -14 43,656 268,650
Dec-19 2,888 2,905 2,888 2,902 2,914 2,897 -17 1,060 2,572
Jan-20 2,855 2,876 2,854 2,867 2,873 2,865 -8 1,053,786 2,103,040
Mar-20 2,829 2,839 2,826 2,834 2,833 2,832 -1 62 814
May-20 2,751 2,759 2,748 2,751 2,759 2,752 -7 177,580 768,372
Jul-20 2,756 2,761 2,754 2,759 2,767 2,756 -11 70 1,716
Aug-20 2,749 2,779 2,749 2,778 2,767 2,777 10 92 124
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,026,688 lots, or 49.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,694 4,718 4,694 4,718 4,654 4,710 56 18 9,028
Oct-19 – – – 4,804 4,748 4,804 56 0 8
Nov-19 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,804 4,800 -4 2 8
Dec-19 – – – 4,768 4,770 4,768 -2 0 6
Jan-20 4,844 4,900 4,770 4,796 4,836 4,838 2 952,796 510,434
Feb-20 4,912 4,912 4,912 4,912 4,846 4,912 66 2 724
Mar-20 – – – 4,950 4,950 4,950 0 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,090 5,022 5,090 68 0 2
May-20 5,010 5,074 4,968 5,000 5,020 5,018 -2 73,870 107,930
Jun-20 – – – 5,046 5,046 5,046 0 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,062 5,062 5,062 0 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 812,206 lots, or 49.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,040 6,062 6,040 6,062 6,034 6,044 10 18 5,742
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,084 6,084 6,084 0 0 22
Jan-20 6,062 6,098 6,020 6,066 6,076 6,060 -16 743,898 896,074
Mar-20 – – – 6,126 6,126 6,126 0 0 520
May-20 5,998 6,026 5,966 6,004 6,016 6,002 -14 68,290 220,098
Jul-20 – – – 6,022 6,010 6,022 12 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,158 6,158 6,158 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.